Opinion: Gun purchase waiting period will have unintended effects (2024)

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Michael Cianchette is a Navy reservist who served in Afghanistan. He is in-house counsel to a number of businesses in southern Maine and was a chief counsel to former Gov. Paul LePage.

Have you ever heard of the cobra effect?

It isn’t a referenceto the movie “Dodgeball.” Instead, it is an economic principle illustrating perverse incentives.

The story is apocryphal. During the British Empire’s rule over India, the governor was worried about too many venomous cobras running amok. So, to solve this problem, he elected to pay a bounty for every dead cobra turned into government magistrates.

It was a good plan. However, the locals figured out an even better one. They decided to raise cobras to kill and turn in for bounties. It was a prudent economic strategy; there was unlimited demand for dead cobras at a set price, so more dead cobras meant more income.

Eventually, the British caught onto the scheme and discontinued the cobra bounty. The cobra nurseries, now without a market, let their cobras go.

The problem the British sought to solve — too many cobras — was now even worse than before.

The world is a pretty complex place. And whether you are considering the cobra effect or the butterfly effect, actions have consequences both seen and unforeseen.

These are good lessons to keep in mind as Gov. Janet Mills considers the pile of bills sent to her desk this week by the Maine Legislature. The cobra effect should ring particularly true with some of the gun laws passed by the thinnest of majorities.

One of the bills sent to Gov. Mills tries to implement a waiting period of three days — 72 hours — before someone can purchase a firearm. Do you see the cobra effect?

A near replica of the same bill was overwhelmingly rejectedby the state Senate just last year. Obviously, the Lewiston tragedy perpetrated by a mentally unwell individual changed the dynamics of gun debates in Maine.

At the same time, everyone acknowledges that a “waiting period” would have likely had absolutely no effect on Robert Card’s rampage.

Nevertheless, the state Senate enacted a waiting period late Wednesday by a single vote.

Advocates supported the bill under a wide variety of theories. One dealt with helping prevent people from accessing a firearm while suicidal. A worthy objective, yet the cobra effect remains.

The Maine Professional Guides Associationopposed the bill, noting some of the unintended consequences that could come from it. If someone “from away” was lucky enough to draw a moose permitbut only showed up with a .17 rifle,they would need to find a firearm dealer to get something with a little more oomph.

Therein lies the challenge of the “waiting period” bill. It governs sales that occur through licensed firearm dealers who are already federally required to conduct background checks. Ostensibly, background checks are something we want to encourage.

But the cobra effect remains.

Adding a 72-hour waiting period requirement for those who want to buy a firearm from a federally licensed firearm dealer will lead to greater demand to buy firearms from those who are not licensed dealers. That is the cobra effect in action.

The obvious retort is that we should then require universal background checks for every firearm sale. But even Gov. Mills — while proposing expansion of background checks— has not gone that far since that proposal presents other problems. The last time universal checks were on the ballot, a majority of Mainers statewide rejected the ideafor good reason.

The Lewiston tragedy remains a heinous crime that will impact our state for years to come. However, as the investigatory commission finishes its work, it seems clear that there were multiple opportunities for intervention — under existing laws — that could have prevented it.

As the governor considers potential new laws on her desk, the cobra effect should be front of mind. Solving a problem in the wrong way can lead to bigger problems. The “cobra” story may be apocryphal, but the principle is very real.

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